The Yokoyama Report: My Brandon Jennings Mancrush.

We’re into the fourth week of fantasy basketball.  It’s time to talk about trades. Today, Phil gives the rundown on how to wheel and deal yourself through the week. He also swoons over a certain Bucks’ guard.

Buy Low Players

Use the early season struggles of some studs to try to rob an unsuspecting owner of potential players that will turn it around. In a best case scenario, you could try selling high on a player (see section below) in return for a player that that has a much better potential upside.

Derrick Rose, Bulls – The dynamic rookie of the year has gotten off to a slow start this season, mainly due to a ankle injury he suffered before the season started. He has elected to play through the injury which has made his numbers suffer. He is down in nearly every category, but you have to think he is going to turn it around eventually. The explosiveness is not quite there yet which shows in his FG%, and owners are certainly getting frustrated with his sub par box scores. On the bright side, his ankle should be fully recovered now and his production should pick up in the near future.

Gerald Wallace, Bobcats – Although he has been a rebounding machine and near the top of the league leaders, his FG% and turnovers have caused his overall production to suffer. With the arrival of Stephen Jackson, no longer is he one of top options for defenses to hone in on the offensive end. The offense is running through Captain Jack now which should free up Wallace to get easier buckets on fast breaks and off passes. His 36% field goal and 3 turnovers/game will almost certainly improve making him a great buy low candidate.

David West, Hornets – He’s had some early season struggles coming off an all star year prompting owners to draft him in the 3rd round or earlier. In particular, his scoring and rebounding are down. The rebounding is down due to the presence of Okafor, so expect his rebounding average to be a shade under last year but should improve from his current number. The scoring is uncharacteristic though and will improve as he rounds into midseason form. With the recent injury to star point guard Chris Paul, West will be forced to take more of an offensive load and the numbers should show in the near future. When Chris Paul comes back this will make his production rise even more as he should have his confidence back and will be happily receiving pinpoint passes from the No. 1 point guard in the league.

Al Jefferson, Timberwolves – Big Al is still trying to find his legs early this season as he recovers from an ACL injury last season. His rebounding, blocking and scoring numbers are down big but at least his assists and steal numbers have risen. Which means if he can round into mid-season form soon, you’re looking at an improved Jefferson over last year. The injury doesn’t seem to be bothering him much, it’s a matter of his conditioning and getting used to playing again after a long layoff. Expect his traditional numbers to rise as he gets more comfortable with playing heavy minutes again.

Worth a look: Jose Calderon,  LaMarcus Aldridge, Jeff Green, Stephen Jackson, Michael Beasley

Sell High

These are players I believe won’t sustain their current value over the entire season, but are are just on a temporary spurt. Try packaging one of these players with another good player (think Ben Gordon, Boris Diaw, Hedo Turkoglu) for an elite player (think Melo, Billups, Brook Lopez)

Channing Frye, Suns – I hyped him as a breakout player and boy, he’s shown up to play. Currently ranked in the top 30 on the year, the sharp shooting big man proves Nash can make nearly anyone in the desert put up big numbers. Although he is playing great and I think he can keep up this production to a degree, I find this a great opportunity to quickly sell him for a more traditional big man or whoever else fills your need. His main contribution comes from his three point shooting (a blistering 3 threes/game) but he lacks in rebounding and blocks. See if you can make a sneaky deal for another young rebounding machine like Jason Thompson or Joakim Noah but I wouldn’t blame you if you held onto Frye for his threes.

Larry Hughes, Knicks – This is a resurgent year thus far for the journeyman whose defined his career by having a breakout year leading to a huge contract and putting it on cruise control afterwards. So you know what that means, another contract year. This is his last chance to get a crack at a decent paycheck next season so he’s playing his tail off. For those that picked him up early this season, owners have to be pleased with his contributions to points, assists, steals, and threes. But I can’t just bring myself to believe that he can do this over an entire season, he’s burned me and other owners too many times to trust him fully. Add in the fact that Iverson may sign with the Knicks soon, I’d advise you to try to package him with another player to see if a different owner will bite.

Erick Dampier, Mavericks – Another player that falls into the category of playing for his final chance at a decent contract. This is evidenced by his stellar rebounding and block numbers, topped off by a 14 point, 20 rebound, 3 block, 1 steal, 100% FG, 100% FT game on  Nov. 10. (I didn’t even play him that night, argh). Dallas also has an incentive to not play him down the stretch of the season:  should he play a certain number of minutes in 70+ games, he will be guaranteed 13 million next season, an amount I’m sure the Mavs are looking to avoid if they can. Although he is currently hospitalized for hopefully a non-serious condition, when he posts another huge line or 2, try shopping him.

Brandon Jennings, Bucks – Don’t get me wrong, this guy is the REAL DEAL. I see him putting up huge numbers all season long to the tune of 20+ points, 5 rebounds, 5 assists, 2 threes and 1.5 steals. However, with the hype still surrounding his crazy 55 point outburst, many owners are probably salivating over how he would fit on their squad. He’s ranked near the top 20 currently, which may be inflated by the 55. When I say sell high on him, make sure you’re getting either an elite player or a very good player at specific categories you need because he’ll slow down a bit, but not by much. Redd will also be returning soon which will limit Jennings to a certain degree. For the many that picked Jennings up off the wire, there is no doubt in my mind, that it’s pickup of the year – by a mile. In fact, I advise you hang onto him unless there’s a deal that’s too good to pass up. If he starts posting pedestrian lines, then I advise you other owners to try to acquire him (Yes, I have a man crush on him)

Worth a look: Mike Miller, Marcus Camby (because of injury), Chris Douglas-Roberts, Brendan Haywood

Monster Stat Line of the week
Brandon Jennings, Milwaukee Bucks – Nov.15
55 Points 5 Rebounds 5 Assists 7 Threes 21-34 FG% 6-8 FT%
Many will be talking about this historic night for a while as he surpassed Kareem Abdul-Jabbar’s (a legend in his own right) rookie record. He scored the most points for a rookie since Earl “the pearl” Monroe in 1968 and also the most points under 21 since LeBron James. That’s pretty good company and I don’t see why he won’t post more 30+ points this year. Enjoy the ride.

And One:
This column is all about Jennings this week. Not given much to work with, he’s led the lackluster bucks to an impressive 5-3 record thus far. A true offensive threat, he’s reminding us of another small guard that took the league by storm 13 years ago named Allen Iverson. Tyreke Evans has made a name for himself since Kevin Martin went out to injury with multiple consecutive 20 point games. He’s even averaging better than his college numbers at the moment. At the current moment in terms of fantasy production, Evans and Jennings and ahead by a longshot.

YP Rookie Rankings:
1. Brandon Jennings – Milwaukee Bucks
2. Tyreke Evans – Memphis Grizzlies
3. Stephen Curry – Golden State Warriors
4. Jonny Flynn – Minnesota Timberwolves
5. Taj Gibson – Chicago Bulls
6. Ty Lawson – Denver Nuggets
7. James Harden – Oklahoma City Thunder
8. DeMar DeRozen – Toronto Raptors
9. Toney Douglas – New York Knicks
10. Terrence Williams – New Jersey Nets

Everything that happens today will happen to Allen Iverson

So, the whole experiment here is trying to figure out how much I can learn about basketball during this season. And yes, I am about to become the first blogger ever to complain about not having enough time to post. The long of the short is, that two weeks into the season — I haven’t learned much. But alas – let’s check in with some stuff that has happened so far.

It’s weird to think of Steve Nash being resurgent (he did, after all, post these rather solid average stats last year: 15.7/9.7/50 FG %/1.5 treys which is better than a lot other point-guards in the league – those 10 assists per game were the third highest, behind only Chris Paul, who can probably stake a legitimate claim for best player in the game right now, and Deron Williams, who’s ascendancy to the echelons of the NBA is only undermined by the fact that we never know how to pronounce this first name). But in any event, Nash, a two-time MVP, had a week. On Nov. 8, he went for 17 assists in the Suns’ victory over the Wizards. Feelingly inspired, I guess, he had 20 dishes against the 76ers the next night. Steve – you’re alright. The Star’s Doug Smith had a write-up on the B.C.-raised star’s season-so far, as the Raps take on the Suns in Phoenix tonight, here.

Speaking of guards – Allen Iverson might be retiring. He’s taken a leave from the Grizzlies, to take care of what’s being called family matters, and not, sadly, Family Matters – but the general consensus seems to be that the former MVP can’t be thrilled with playing only 22 minutes a night right now with Memphis. There isn’t much to say here besides Iverson, who’s in his 14th year in the league, might have been the best player in league at one time, and now we’re trying to guess if he’ll ever play again. That’s something that has always troubled me – the quick descent of those who have dominated their sport. In the mid-1990s, Eric Lindros was a force all to himself in the NHL – the heir to Lemieux, etc. But 10 years later, he was a footnote on the Leafs’ 2004-05 roster, and then ended up scoring 5 goals in his last season, in Dallas, the next year. (side note: Guy never played a full season, but still managed 865 career points). In baseball, it’s Ken Griffrey Jr. In pop music – Paul McCartney I know this is sort a simple concept: player-used-be-good-but-then-he-wasn’t. But I always find it disconcerting to find athletes who were once the best, and then despite hanging out in their sports for several seasons after, becoming decidedly not-the best. And in the case of AI, his showdown with Vince Carter in the 2001 playoffs is a pretty seminal basketball moment for me. (But hey, speaking of downfalls.) In any event, here’s super-genius Malcolm Gladwell writing in the New Yorker magazine in 2006, trying to figure out if Iverson was that great anyway.

This is the worst blog I’ve ever been on.

I’m aware that there are certain principles of online journalism/media. Let’s, for the sake of argument, say that timeliness is the most important aspect of having a blog – having posts, funny chatter and discussion and cool videos and whatever else about things that currently happening. This has clearly not been in the case this week at the Squeak.

And like I said off the start, I want to do this and I want to do this right — but last week was sort of hectic, and obviously, nothing was posted. It won’t happen again. I can only apologize to the everyone who writes here – JB, Phil, and Lucas – that I indeed dropped the ball this week. But it won’t happen again.

Low Post

So let me first apologize to my man Scott. My post is waaaaaaaaay late this week (ed. note: and it’s even later, because I’m an idiot), but with good reason. After a crazy week which included going out Monday night to CBC’s Battle of the Blades (lame I know), my girlfriend’s birthday and working every night since Wednesday, I have finally gotten to sitting down and writing this post as I watch the Raps play the Mavs at Dallas. It’s the end of the first Q with TO down 1, 25-24.

Man, do I not get the Raptors sometimes. You beat the Cavs in your home opener, then you lose to Memphis? Losing to Orlando I understand, but then they beat NO Hornets at NO. And here’s something I’ve noticed. Everyone discusses guys like Lebron, Wade and Bosh leaving their respective towns, and I know he loves Nawlins, but there’s something amuck in Mardi Gras. CP3 is a point guard talent we haven’t seen…maybe ever. He incorporates skills from all the greats. The passing ability of John Stockton, the speed of Isaiah Thomas, the ball-handling of Tim Hardaway at his best, the vision of Magic and his shooting is underrated. And he D’s up like Dennis Johnson. Him leaving NO would be the worst thing to happen in NO’s basketball world since they left for Salt Lake and Pistol Pete got hurt.

Now on to my schtick.

Move of the first week: Brandon Jennings on Rodney Stuckey.

When in…oh right, he ain’t in Rome no mo. And I think playing in Milwaukee is a great thing for him, he won’t have millions of eyes on him all the time and he can begin his career. But when those highlights start coming in, like the one he got off the steal, watch out. Rodney Stuckey has proven himself as a starting point guard in this league and Jennings made him look stupid. He’s smaller, he’s weaker, he’s skinnier, less experienced and he got schooled.

Dunk of the first week: Andre Iguodala through the Knicks/Carmelo Anthony on Paul Millsap

As soon as I saw the Iguodala dunk, it was instantly better than anything else  I had seen. Weaving through the defenders, in traffic at full speed, with the hook slam. But then I realized it was against the Knicks and then I saw Melo’s. He gets a great steal and then dunks on Millsap, who ain’t no slouch.

Performance of the week: Kevin Martin
His 48-point night was great, that’s him at his best and his healthiest. Unfortunately, his wrist is fractured. Hopefully he gets well soon so we’ll be able to see some other near 50-point nights.

Sad story of the first week: Iverson
Arguably the most talented player ever is playing frustrating ball in Memphis. Just sad.

Surprise Rookie of the first week: Chase Budinger
I’ve always liked Chase since I first really read about him when SLAM did a quick story on him before when to Arizona. He’s athletic, talented and a tough kid. I like how he’s stepped in and playing in Houston like Jennings in Milwaukee doesn’t put on so much pressure. I also was impressed with Craig Smith with the Clips. It’s weird too because I never liked him at BC, but I was really impressed with him.

Surprise Team of the Week: Houston Rockets
No brainer here. No T-Mac, no Yao, losing Artest and they’re still playing hard and winning some games. I’m telilng you, it’s not so much that T-Mac is a cancer, it’s that no coach has ever used him correctly. I remember watching the Rockets play once and they were just killing. McGrady was smooth, playing with Battier, just dynamo. Then the other team starts making a comeback and the entire Houston offense turns into giving the ball to T-Mac on the block and letting him do whatever he wants. That isn’t an offense when you do it allllll theeeeee tiiiiiiime. So frustrating.

Comeback player of the first week: Gilbert Arenas
If he stays healthy and Mike Miller plays well and Haywood keeps rebounding, this team has a serious shot of getting back to the playoffs. Agent 0 is officially back…PLEASE STAY HEALTHY!

Player of the week: Carmelo Anthony
Got player of the week in the NBA and rightfully so. The best player on one of the best teams and he’s just picked up where he left off. Bravo.

Team of the first week: Boston Celtics
Couple teams in the running were Pheonix, Miami and I really wanted to give this to the Nuggets, believe me I did, but I just can’t deny how much of an impact Kevin Garnett has and how much better they are. They’ve only recently just lost to Phoenix who is playing great, they won their statement game against Cleveland and they’ve beaten everyone else. Man oh man, I want them on the Lakers for a repeat.

Weirdest thing of the first week: Manu Ginobili as Batman

Leave it to an Argentinian to whack a bat out of mid-air. I don’t care who you are, that is impressive. If that doesn’t impress you, your standards are unrealistic.

That’s all for now, I promise you I will be on time next time!

Lucas Meyer is a post-graduate journalism student at Humber College. The Low Post appears weekly. He spits the game for those who throw bricks.

The Yokoyama Report – Nov. 15

First week of NBA action is in the books, so hopefully those that are in head-to-head leagues got their first winning match-up. A majority of the break=out players I mentioned last week went on to have huge debuts for their teams. Channing Frye had 12 threes in 2 games, Bargnani has become a huge offensive threat (22 points/game, 2.7 threes/game) and Lou Williams showed a nice all around game with nearly a triple double in one of his games (27 points, 10 rebounds, 7 assists).

The first few weeks are arguably some of the most important weeks for the whole fantasy season since the waiver wire is frantic with activity and we start to see some of the glaring holes in our teams. At the start of the season, not every team will have a strict rotation and their coaches will experiment with lineups which could make some free agents suddenly become must own players. So it is important to scan box scores to look for big night performances and how many minutes they played. Taking some time to think about why a certain player broke out can make the big difference between picking up a dud or a stud.

The questions you’re going to want to think about are:
“Is this player filling in for an injury?” – Perhaps a player was out for 1-2 games meaning the fill-in will only have temporary value.
“How many shots is he taking?” – Even if the shooting % is bad, this is a good sign since the coach has given the green light for this guy to shoot without yanking him off the floor.
“Is it a blowout?” – Many players get their stats in garbage time when the game doesn’t even matter anymore. Avoid these guys.
“How young is the player? / Is the team in a losing situation?” – Although it is too early in the season, teams will tend to start playing their young prospects to gain them experience, but especially in situations where the team has no chance of making the playoffs. Younger generally means more upside and is of course something to keep an eye on for keeper leagues.

Waiver Pickups

Standard leagues
This section is meant for the standard 10-12 team leagues. Leagues any shallower than that would have a boatload of talented free agents too large to mention.

Andray Blatche, Wizards – Blew up for 30 points on 15-18 FG%. He’s getting the minutes and doesn’t have much competition for them so he’ll make for a more than solid 2nd centre. With his youth and upside, he definitely has the potential to post big nights like this depending on the opposition.

Danilo Gallinari, Knicks – If you need 3s, look no further. The Italian sophomore put up an astounding 18 threes in his first week of action. That alone would have won you the threes category for the week. He’s now inserted into the starting lineup and D’antoni has given him the green light to shoot to his hearts content.

Ryan Gomes, Timberwolves – After 2 off nights, Gomes had a very nice line of 23-15-4 with 2 steals and threes. While Kevin Love is out, he’ll have to shoulder more of the offensive load, which only means good things for him. An underrated forward who can fill up the bucket in bunches when given the chance.

Corey Brewer, Timberwolves – He’s starting to heat it up, so run, don’t walk to pick this guy up. He has all the tools to become a competent contributor to your team: young, starter, minutes and versatility. Although his FG% isn’t the greatest, he has the ability to contribute in virtually every category.

Martell Webster, Trail Blazers – We sort of have a timeshare between Webster/Fernandez/Outlaw in Portland but I think Webster is the most consistent of the three. He has the starting job currently and plays good enough defense to ensure him enough minutes to produce. His lines may not be as flashy, but they are more consistent. Expect points, steals, threes and some rebounds from him.

Deeper Leagues
This is meant to help leagues of size 14 and larger. Leagues in the 18-20 range will not find as much help in this section since waivers are so sparse and trades are the main vessel for activity there.

Will Bynum, Pistons – The pistons are currently under-manned, missing both Rip Hamilton and Tayshaun Prince. This opens a big opportunity for Bynum to get minutes and audition for some more permanent minutes. He’s proven he can be an explosive scorer off the bench contributing points, threes and a handle of assists and steals. Watch the minute situation when the other starters return, but it’s not a bad idea to stash Bynum in case one of them stays injured for an extended amount of time.

Thabo Sefolosha, Thunder – He has put up some weak lines, but the Thunder just extended his contract and he’s starting at the moment. The Thunder have put together a competing team that can surprise others and while that continues, Thabo should see more minutes than the rookie James Harden. Thabo has nice all around versatility and just seems to be in a slump right now. Pick him up after he posts a decent line.

Shelden Williams, Celtics – The husband of Candace Parker had 2 decent lines last week mainly due to the fact that the Celtics dominated their opponents. I don’t normally suggest players that get their stats in garbage time, but the Celtics are looking so good this year that they’ll blowout teams more often than not. Shelden can post a modest amount of points, rebounds and blocks so get him out there when you see the Celtics facing a lowly opponent.

Ben Wallace, Pistons – He’s turning back the clock almost looking like the defensive player of the year from years back. He’s currently averaging 10+ rebounds and a combined steal and block total of 3. He’s got the starting gig and only has to worry about fending off Kwame Brown which isn’t much competition at all.

Chris Douglas-Roberts, Nets – While filling in for Devin Harris, he has put up some nice lines including a 25 point outing. Devin Harris could be injured again later in the season which would make CDR a very solid contributor. Even so, he has earned more minutes with his recent play and will steadily get better. Expect more value later into the season when the Nets are out of the playoff picture.

Omri Casspi, Kings – The first Israeli player in the NBA may well also become the first Israeli fantasy relevant player in the NBA as well. The coach has taken a liking to him since he plays both ends of the floor well and he’s a nice spark of offense off the bench. Given minutes which I think he will get as the season rolls along, he should provide some points (10+), threes (1+) and sprinkle in some defensive stats as well.

Monster Stat Line of the week
LeBron James, Cavaliers
38 Points 4 Rebounds 8 Assists 2 Steals 4 Blocks 4 Threes 12-22 FG% 10-13 FT%
LeBron opened the season with a bang on opening night and the first box score of the season yielded the best line of the first week. He also did this against the NBA’s defense as well; look for LBJ to challenge this year for top fantasy honours.

And One:
Until Blake Griffin comes back, I’ll leave him out of my rookie rankings for the moment. The rookie to make the biggest splash after week one was definitely Brandon Jennings. After watching him play and rack up nearly a triple double in his first game, and 24 points the next game, he’s shown me all the tools needed to become an elite fantasy contributor. He can shoot the three, he’ll become a premier thief and distributes the ball quite well. I thought he would enter a timeshare with Luke Ridnour, but apparently the experience he acquired in Rome last year has endeared coach Scott Skiles. This is how the rankings look like for week 2:

1. Brandon Jennings – Milwaukee Bucks
2. Tyreke Evans – Memphis Grizzlies
3. Stephen Curry – Golden State Warriors
4. Jonny Flynn – Minnesota Timberwolves
5. Terrence Williams – New Jersey Nets
6. James Harden – Oklahoma City Thunder
7. DeJuan Blair – San Antonio Spurs
8. Omri Casspi – Sacramento Kings
9. DeMar DeRozen – Toronto Raptors
10. Chase Budinger – Houston Rockets

The Yokoyama Report appears weekly on The Infernal Squeak.

Dispatches from Coruscant

Seven people, places, and things worth thinking about in the NBA, this week:

1. Scheduling

The NBA is extremely balanced when it comes to scheduling, as every team plays every other team at least twice and four times, at most (depending on conference and division). But the importance of a schedule’s technicalities such as back-to-back games, length of road trips, and the rest days of your opponent cannot be understated.

Granted, discussing the potential perils of a team’s schedule before the season starts is about as useful as predicting the weather for a wedding six months from now (i.e., last October, almost every team’s fans complained their 2008-09 schedule put them at some sort of massive disadvantage) but certain factors do stand out in advance and they are worth examining.

This year, the Lakers, Spurs, and Clippers each have 8-game road trips around midseason (the Bulls have a 7-game trip) but all four of these teams also have 6-game home stands earlier in the year (among the longest in the league). Conversely, several teams including Orlando, Oklahoma City, and Houston are not scheduled to embark on any road trip longer than four games.

All of these facts could very well end up being meaningless footnotes to the season but there’s no question that teams who have a home-heavy first half of the season (when injuries and fatigue are at a minimum) obviously have an advantage when it comes to quickly compiling a winning record and early position in their division and conference. Teams to keep an eye on:

 Lakers – 17 of their first 21 games are at home and they don’t travel further East than Oklahoma City until December 15. The penalty for this Fall treat is that the defending champs have the most back-to-backs on the road (18) and they also have 42 games against a team coming off a day of rest.
 Bulls – 11 of their first 17 games are away from home, including road games against the Celtics, Cavs (twice), Lakers, Nuggets, Blazers, and Jazz. Even worse, they are tied for the league lead with 23 total back-to-backs. Vinny Del Negro really has his work cut out for him, in his sophomore year as head coach.
 Bobcats – though this team will most definitely be terrible, it is worth pointing out that their schedule should not get any of the imminent blame. They have 21 games that follow two days of rest (most in the league), 31 games against teams in the midst of back-to-backs (most in the league), 13 of those 31 games against teams in the midst of back-to-backs will be at home (most in the league), and 6 games against teams who are wrapping up a 4-games-in-5-days stretch (most in the league).

Boom: Boston and Dallas each have 8 games coming off of three days of rest. 8 games out of 82 may not seem like a lot but because Dallas will be fighting for a playoff spot and Boston will be competing for the best record in the East and possibly the whole League… those 8 games will undoubtedly play a role in where these teams finish.

2. Washington Wizards

I have no idea why anyone should expect this team to emerge as a dark horse of any kind and yet they endlessly intrigue me. First of all: yes, Gilbert Arenas appears to be back and healthy but he hasn’t played a full season since 2006-07 (read: three years ago) so, the safe assumption is that he will not be able to sustain any semblance of All-Star caliber play for a prolonged period of time. Secondly, Antawn Jamison is scheduled to miss the first month of the regular season (I like Andray Blatche in his stead but Jamison’s absence is a big hit to their frontcourt depth). Thirdly, even if we could guarantee that the Wiz would have all three of their best players for a bulk of the season… how good is this team capable of being, anyway? Their 2005-06 squad, which featured Arenas, Jamison, and Caron Butler each playing at least 75 games, was 42-40. The 2006-07 team saw Arenas, Jamison, and Butler each playing at least 63 games and they finished at 41-41. While the current supporting cast may be slightly better than the supporting casts from three and four years ago… how much of a difference can Mike Miller, Randy Foye, and Brendan Haywood really make?

Despite all of this, I am still intrigued by the team (particularly the breakout potential of young guys like Blatche, Nick Young, and Javale McGee) and where it might end up in a notably flimsy division. If everything locks into place, I would not be surprised at all if they end up with one of the top-4 spots in the East.

Boom: the last time the Wizards had a healthy Gilbert Arenas, Caron Butler, and Antawn Jamison on the court at the same time for a regular season game was April 1, 2007.

3. Roster spots

For most of the offseason, with the effects of the economy on the NBA coming into focus (see: lower salary cap this year and next), many prognosticators expected most teams to leave a spot or two vacant on the 15-man roster in hopes of saving some money. Well… that didn’t really happen. Economy be damned, eighteen out of 30 teams are rolling with a complete roster on opening night.

The intriguing aspect of this is just how long it will last. On January 10, all contracts become guaranteed for the remainder of the year (by that time, also, teams will know which players fit into their rotation). Translation? Look for a fair amount of players to be out on the market before the All-Star break, either via the trading block or in waivers/free agency.

Boom: currently, four teams are carrying only 13 players – the Lakers, Nuggets, Hawks, and 76ers. Admittedly, it’s doubtful that any of those teams will be able to find someone on waivers in January who will help the team improve but it does allow all of these teams to pull the trigger on trades where they acquire more players than they send away, which is sometimes a valuable luxury to have.

4. Stephen Jackson

It’s very clear that Stephen Jackson wants to be traded from the Warriors and his wish will probably be granted sooner rather than later (it’s not like Golden State is going anywhere this year). Though the man is arguably one of the craziest men to ever play in the NBA, his value to a good team cannot be overlooked (he torched the Mavericks in that 2007 first round upset, don’t forget) and if the Warriors are so desperate to unload him that he can be eventually acquired for pennies on the dollar… some team is going to look brilliant come playoff time.

Boom: though running into the stands alongside Ron Artest to punch fans in the face while on national television has understandably tarnished all of Stephen Jackson’s pre-Indiana Pacers career, don’t forget that this guy was a key piece of the 2003 Spurs championship team.

5. Sacramento Kings

I like Kevin Martin and Tyreke Evans but I am pretty sure this might be one of the worst teams ever assembled. The NBA record for the fewest wins in a season is nine, by the 1972-73 Philadelphia 76ers. So, this year’s Kings need to win 10 times to ensure they do not join the Club of Basketball Futility. Seems reasonable, right? Ehh. Check out their schedule. Because we can’t account for upsets, can we definitely find ten games in the season that the Kings have a legitimate chance at winning? Based just on talent, what teams AREN’T markedly better than the Kings? It’s a pretty short list, in my estimation: Memphis, Minnesota, and Charlotte (and even those three may end up being far better than Sacramento). So, how many times do the Kings face those three teams, total? Nine. Nine times. I think we might be heading for history (and many Ferris Bueller references).

Boom: the Kings’ new head coach is Paul Westphal, who hasn’t been an NBA head coach since 2001 and his last head coaching job at any level was Pepperdine University in 2005-2006, where he was fired after a 7-20 season. Yeesh.

6. The Russian Mark Cuban

I think the Nets could be in the playoff race for most of this year. No, seriously; their young backcourt may be a little undersized but it’s tough to believe that they won’t be able to succeed in some fashion against most Eastern conference opponents (punishing slower guards or getting into the paint against bad defenses) and they also have a big advantage over many teams in the form of Brook Lopez. Ultimately though, their lack of quality depth – especially in the frontcourt behind Lopez – will be their undoing (I mean, we cannot expect Bobby Simmons to stay healthy and contribute in a meaningful way, can we?).

That all being said, with this new owner who may actually be willing to make moves that places the emphasis on “team improvement” rather than “cost cutting” or “stockpiling cap space for the 2014 season”… we might see the Nets turn into a pretty decent team before the year’s out.

Boom: though they only won 34 games last year, the Nets were one of the best teams in the league when it came to taking care of the ball, only turning it over 13.1 times per game.

7. Jameer Nelson

All the off-season hubbub in the Magic Kingdom was centered around Vince Carter replacing Hedo Turkoglu and the additions of Brandon Bass and Jason Williams.

While it made sense (who doesn’t love to talk about how new components will affect a successful team’s chemistry?), I believe the most important wrinkle for this Magic team is that they are going into this season with a fully healthy Jameer Nelson. If you’ve forgotten, Nelson is the guy who led the Magic to a 36-10 start last year before his shoulder injury.

On top of that, even though Nelson did play 18 minutes per game in the Finals, he basically will enter this season with nearly 9 full months of rest. Even if Vince Carter is his normal “I don’t care and it shows” self, the return of Nelson will probably coincide with this team’s return to the Eastern Conference Finals.

Boom: while the team was able to post a winning record over their last 26 games last year and got to the Finals without Nelson, Orlando’s regular season winning percentage was notably better when he was running the show (.782 vs .638).

Justin Brown is a Virginia-based blogger and writer.  When he isn’t doing this, he’s doing this.

Lucas in the Low Post

Bonjour and what’s up?

This is my first post and I’m so excited to be joining my homeboy Scott, or as I call him, Scooter. So as the season kicks off, let me just give you guys a little intro about me.

I’m 24 years old and finishing up my post-grad in journalism at Humber. I rock the broadcast section while Scott holds down the print side. This blog is going to be all ball all the time from me. I won’t talk about music, movies, art, entertainment, unless it is someway associated with the Naismith creation. So let me just get out some points about me and ball.

I fell in love with the game in grade 8. Up until that point, I was a lot like Michael Jordan, with my first athletic affair being baseball. However, that’s where the similarities with Air Jordan and myself end. But nonetheless, I always a fan of the court, but in grade 8, I decided to go out for the team at Lachine High School in Montreal and thankfully made it. My first game was one of my best ever, playing against the might Wagar High School, one of the most dominant teams in Quebec. We lost by 50, but at 5’8, I played power forward and scored 10 points. Not bad at all.

My team highlight came in my senior year of high school. My family moved to Antigonish, Nova Scotia when I was 14 and our high school team, the Dr. John Hugh Gillis Regional Royals won our first regional championships in 7 years. 3 of our players would go on to play university ball. We would eventually lose in provincials against the second-ranked Horton Griffins, 77-74, in hands down, the craziest game I’ve ever been apart of.

I started doing play-by-play for St. F. X. basketball in my second year of university and it was when I realized what I wanted to do for the rest of my life. Doing play-by-play is my ultimate ambition and I’ve been so lucky with the opportunities I’ve had when I started at our small campus radio station.

Now that’s my little bio. Now onto ball.

My favorite player all-time is Ray Allen. This is not to say that I think he is the greatest ever, which he is not, but he’s the guy I’ve tried to pattern my game after and who I’ve always cheered for. He is so much more than the jump-shooting artist he’s none to be. The classy pro has ball control, the smooth touch around the rim and he’s been known to rock the rim as well. And when it comes to being clutch, he’s as dependable as anyone. Just YouTube Ray Allen game 4 NBA Finals and click the first link.

My position was shooting guard, (maybe that explains Ray Allen).

The best basketball book I’ve read is Pistol by Mark Kreigel. Pete Maravich was one of the most striking basketball characters of all-time. While other NBA players like Karl Malone, Charles Barkley, John Stockton and George Gervin never won a championship, Maravich is the one I wish had one over all of them. Such an incredible talent who often couldn’t stand the game, the roots of his wizardry stem from the relationship with his father, Press, a great coach. I urge all of you to read Pistol, one of the best sports books you’ll ever read.

In terms greatest sporting events, I think the triple-overtime game 5 between the Phoenix Suns and Boston Celtics in 1976 is the greatest game NBA history has to offer and the top two NCAA championships are Texas Western in 1966 and NC State Wolfpack in 1983.  Villanova in 1985 is up there too.

Another note of interest, I think John Stockton was actually a better point guard than Magic Johnson, but I would take Magic Johnson over him any day. Stockton finished all-time in assists with only one consistent scoring option throughout his career. Magic had the greatest scorer in NBA history, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, James Worthy, Byron Scott, Micheal Cooper and also had years with Bob MacAdoo and Sam Perkins. Granted, Magic’s career was cut short and he missed more games due to injury, but Stockton broke Magic’ mark midway through his 11th season, whereas Magic held the record after 12 in 1991. So when you consider, he had one dominant scoring option all those years, didn’t have Magic’s height and he broke it in his 11^th year, oh, and he’s the NBA’s all-time steals leader, I think he actually has better point guard skills than anyone. But, I’d still take Magic over everyone.

More other things:
Greatest dunk of all-time? Carter over Weis.
Greatest clutch moment of all-time? Jordan over Russell (1998).
Biggest steal of all-time? Havlicek in 64.
Biggest blown call of all-time? Not calling the foul Shaq threw on Steve Smith in the 2000 conference finals after the amazing alley-oop between Shaq and Kobe.
Worst foul call of all-time? Scottie Pippen on Hubert Davis in 94. No question.
Biggest upset of all-time? Villanova in 85, Nuggets in 94.
Greatest comeback of all-time? Boston’s 4^th quarter against NJ, game 3, 2002 ECF
Greatest team of all-time? 96 Bulls. Not even close.
Greatest player of all-time? Lucas Meyer. Then Michael Jordan.

So that’s some of me, I’m excited to get this season underway and I’ll holla at you all next week!

Lucas Meyer is a journalism student at Humber College in Toronto. His Low Post runs every Wednesday on the Infernal Squeak. He is intercontinental when he eats French toast.

The Yokoyama Report

Every year, Phil crushes the rest of us in our fantasy league. He rightfully crushes me, sure (I once took Lamar Odom in the second round), but then handles everyone else just as easily. In his first fantasy column, Phil takes a look at players poised to break-out this season. Get on that trading block or waiver wire now.

Courtney Lee, Nets
On a new team where he will be relied on heavily as part of a new young core where the team is certainly in a rebuilding stage. He was the main component in a trade that sent Vince Carter to the Magic — New Jersey’s franchise player, so the Nets certainly see some huge potential in him. He received 25 minutes a game last year, but will certainly get all the minutes he can handle in New Jersey. So I think we will see a large spike in threes, steals, and points. I’m predicting 2.0+ threes/game, 1.75 steals/game and 15 points/game. He received loads of experience last year playing with the talent filled roster of Orlando and will continue his trend upwards this year.

Lou Williams, 76ers
Finally handed the reins to the starting point guard position after Andre Miller signed with the Trailblazers, Sweet Lou will see upwards of 35 minutes a night according to Philly’s head coach. The staff was already high on Williams, and now he has the opportunity to prove it to them. The backup PG (Jrue Holliday) is not much of a threat, as he is a rookie and primarily a defensive guard who doesn’t shoot the ball much. Williams should provide a good source of points (17+), threes (1.5), and steals (1.5). Now as the starting point guard, you should expect a healthy amount of assists from him, but this isn’t his main strength. I think he will struggle at first distributing the ball but those numbers will rise as he gets used to the offensive system put in place. He’ll probably finish the season with around 4-5 assists/game which isn’t horrible for our 2nd PG slot. Think of him as a poor man’s Gilbert Arenas.

Channing Frye, Suns
He’s been given a lot of hype since he was named the starting center for Phoenix and tearing it up in the preseason and I think we should all buy into the hype. The Suns are back with the run and gun game which bodes well for everyone on the roster. Frye’s main strength at the moment is his nice shooting touch from deep and should be good for 1.5 threes/game and 13-15 points/game. This is very nice to see from a centre as they rarely shoot it from downtown. Frye benefits from the excellent vision of Steve Nash and will certainly get his chances to shoot in the Seven-Seconds-Or-Less-Offense. Keep in mind that Frye isn’t great at the traditional big man categories like blocks and rebounds. He will provide solid value for leagues that require a second centre.

Andrea Bargnani, Raptors
I have a soft spot for multi-talented big man who can block shots and step out to shoot the three. Bargnani fits this bill exactly and he should continue his breakout which started the 2nd half of last season. Long known for his passiveness and hesitation during games, he’s becoming more comfortable in Toronto’s offense and it is showing in his games. I truly believe this is his breakout year to the tune of 18 points/game, 2 threes/game, 1.5 blocks/game, 6-7 rebounds/game and excellent percentages. He’ll also be extra motivated to produce with the Raptor’s many solid acquisitions made in the offseason, not to mention a fellow Italian in Marco Bellinelli.

Greg Oden, Trailblazers
Billed as the next David Robinson, he hasn’t quite lived up the hype, but this should be the year that he breaks out. Just recently, ‘Blazers coach Nate McMillan has handed him the starting job, giving him the opportunity to grow into the defensive machine they need him to be. With his large history of injuries, owners certainly hesitated when drafting him, but if he stays healthy which I think he will, he should easily average a double double while approaching 2 blocks/game.

Jason Thompson, Kings
His preseason stat line for a particular game stood out significantly as he posted 20 points and 20 rebounds which shows his amazing potential that has continued since the end of the 2nd half last season. Playing on a very weak squad in the Sacramento, the youth movement is in full effect, so there are plenty of minutes for him to be had. Jason should easily average 18 points/game, 10 rebounds/game and 1.5 blocks/game and perhaps even slightly higher than these predictions.

Trevor Ariza, Rockets
I may be a bit biased seeing as how I own Ariza on every one of my teams, but there is a lot of reason to be excited about him. He blossomed into an incredible role player last year and averaged nearly 2 steals/game in only 24 minutes/game. With Houston’s obviously depleted roster missing T=Mac and Yao, Ariza will be relied heavily upon to produce. Ariza’s effort stats (steals, rebounds) will go nowhere but up as his minutes should increase to 35+ and he should be a top 5 leader in steals by the end of the year. I feel that his scoring will go up the 16-18 points/game but at the cost of his field goal %. As Ariza is certainly one of the Rocket’s marquee players, defences will be keen on focusing on him, often forcing him into more difficult shots which will ultimately affect his FG%. Otherwise Ariza should have a breakout year and see a rise in nearly every category.

AND ONE:
The biggest news in rookie land is that Blake Griffin suffered a broken kneecap that will sideline him for 6 weeks. Although this is a huge blow, he was by far the most talented rookie in this year’s draft and should NOT be dropped in any keeper leagues. I also advise to hold onto him in head-to-head leagues. However, in shallower leagues (10 teams or more) and more specifically rotisserie, you may have to bite the bullet and drop him depending on what’s out there and the more news we hear about the injury. It is difficult to gauge at the current moment who has the most potential, so I’ll be focusing more on who can provide the most value at the current moment. So it will be clear that rookies put in losing situations will have the most to gain for the near future. If we knew whether or not Rubio would play next year, it certainly wouldn’t be a bad idea to stash him near the end of the season. After, Griffin, the top 10 rookies for this season rounds out as such:

2. Tyreke Evans
3. Jonny Flynn
4. Stephen Curry
5. James Harden
6. Brandon Jennings
7. DeMar DeRozen
8. DeJuan Blair
9. Terrence Williams
10. Omri Casspi

In the weeks to follow, I’ll have ongoing columns seen below and other special topics that I’ll come up with as the season goes along:
Hang Tight: Hold onto these guys during their slump and don’t sell too low
Cut Bait: Cut these guys for better options
Waiver Pickups: I’ll give options for both shallow and deeper leagues
Monster stat line of the week
Trending Up/Down

The Yokoyama Report runs every Friday on the Infernal Squeak.

Why this is a blog and why you are here.

I like talking about sports. It’s probably the only thing I really like speaking passionately about. Holding a controversial political or social opinion too often feels like a liability – but a sports opinion? I wear mine like badges. And I would like to make my living talking about sports — but a lot of people do. In the meantime, this is a blog and you are here.

Out of all professional sports, I know basketball the least. I don’t consider my knowledge of hockey, or baseball, or the two footballs as anything close to encyclopaedic. But I do know enough to carry myself in conversation or drunken argument – and maybe enough to even make a salient point or two.

But not with basketball.

I know the ball is round. I know you’ve got to bounce it. I can name some good players. I know why they are called the Los Angeles Lakers, despite playing in a city with no lakes. But that’s basically it. My knowledge of basketball is somewhat akin to Sarah Palin’s knowledge of America. I know it’s there, but dare me to say anything intelligent or clever about it. But I’d like to know a lot about the game — and this is why this is a blog. I’m going to see how much I can learn about the NBA over the course of the 2009-10 season. The fact that this forum is launching a full week after the start of the campaign shows that this experiment might be a bit of a struggle, but alas,
I’m trying. I will, at the very least, find out if that Sarah Palin joke turns out to be the most-dated cultural reference I try to make.
Like I said up there, I don’t really know that much about sports that I can offer anyone who reads this blog as a commodity. But those things that fans need to really unhealthily enjoy sports (statistics, expert analysis, game stories), they can already get somewhere else. I’m not here to out-smart the smart things that smart people are already doing.

But what I do think I can somewhat do is talk about how sports — and in this case, basketball and the NBA — intersect with culture, society, media, even the human condition. Or something like that. So that’s what I’m, and the rest of the Squeak team will try to do here. If I can give this experiment a clunky sort of thesis, it’s this: that while I’m trying to learn something about this game, maybe we can contribute something clever and compelling, that can be uniquely ours, to the basketball discourse. We’ll see, anyway. It’s a long season.

So anyway, I’ll be here twice a week. Phil, a long-time friend of mine, and the resident fantasy ball expert amongst my friends will chip in his roto advice every Friday. JB, an insanely smart and talented blogger, will contribute his own weekly columns, and the same with Lucas, a journalism school classmate of mine. Things might look a bit tacky around here, but we’ll hopefully spruce up the place over the next couple of weeks.

So there we are, let’s have some fun.